This weekend, we have a PPV card at Vegas. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to acquire a great deal of cash from this week and I can not wait to chase these big prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $50k belongs to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only tournament for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. I won my very first chair into it last week and will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at that $50k prize, then I will likely take a couple shots at the Qualifier. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for my cash game lineup this week at his -800 gaming lineup. I’ll take that free square foot and move on. He should dominate this fight and he can finish it on the toes or the ground. I expect him to score more than 100-points and I am perfectly fine with paying 9.6k for it. When I am making lineups, I would like to try to get at least 10x from each fighter. Together with Jones being 9.6k, I want at least 96 points from him. That’s how I look at it. If this was a 3-round battle and I didn’t think Jones could find a finish then perhaps he just scores 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I wouldn’t need that. However, this is a possible 5-round battle, and that I really do expect Jones to dominate, so that cost is fine with me. For GPPs, I believe that you can get from Jon Jones since he’ll be quite highly possessed. If he is 50% owned by the field and he simply scores 85-90 DK points, then will pretty much kill half the field since that would not be sufficient points to put him on that $50k lineup.
GPP drama of the week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this fight it’ll be out of his wrestling. He is one of the greatest wrestlers in MMA history and now he is finally getting a chance in the UFC after dominating every organization he has been in. He won’t wish to strike for extended against Robbie Lawler, therefore I expect him to shoot for takedowns straight away and chain wrestle till he gets them. When he receives top control there is not going to be a lot Robbie can do on the ground and he should take a beating as long as it is on the mat. On DraftKings, every takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points for a significant strike. A guy like Askren can go out there and get 10 takedowns at 15-minutes and that is what makes him a great play if he can think of the success.
Play of the week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This is not the Diego Sanchez of old, but I think he has what it takes to beat Mickey Gall. On the feet, the volume from Sanchez should acquire it for him there so long as he doesn’t get pumped out. The chin of Diego is exactly what I worry about most these days, but Gall is not much of a striker and I really don’t see him becoming knockout. I also don’t understand that Gall can get takedowns, and I think Sanchez would be the more likely man to be on top if the fight hits the ground. There is A submission Gall’s best chance at a win here and Sanchez has never been submitted. We have to have underdogs within our DK lineups and at $7.1k Diego enables us to pay up for all those guys like Jon Jones or Ben Askren. If he can grind a determination win here I think he can become 10x that salary and if we could get a win against him in the inexpensive salary, I think we will be in line for that $50k win when we hit our other five spots.
Fade of the week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might end up using every fighter since I am making so many lineups this week, however Anthony Smith is the guy I need the very least of. I attempt to acquire a favored for you guys as my fade of the week but I do not believe there are any need to fade favorites this week. Rather, I am going with the 1 fighter I don’t think stands a opportunity. I think that a fluke KO is the only path to victory for Smith and that he actually doesn’t have the 1 punch/kick power it might take to pull that off. I’d be shocked when Smith pulled off the upset this week and if I was making 20 or less lineups, he’d be an easy fade.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I’m 58-37 for +177.62un (+$17,762) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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