If it comes to the Kentucky Derby, there has been a very clear evolution in how intricate wagers can be, and how you can almost bet on any kind of impact on Derby day. We’ve moved far beyond simply picking a winner along with a second-place finisher and proceeded into head-to-head wagers, bets on racing fractions, duration of success, in addition to stakes like how many Tweets President Donald Trump will create. Although I often find myself attempting to rationalize and think of quantifiable numbers to support my bet, who knows what’s going to occur after three Mint Julep’s and being down 300 before the real race begins?
Here are three of my favorite proposal wagers for your Kentucky Derby:
How many lengths will be winner win ? More than 1.5 (-160), or Beneath 1.5 (+120)
The Kentucky Derby has been decided by less than one length on 42 events. On the opposite end, the Derby has been obtained by four lengths or more 23 times.
In this year’s run for the roses there appears to be a lot of speed horses entered, or at least horses that tend to prefer the front end. With a lot of vying for premature positioning, a potential pace duel might ensue upfront. If that is the case, then it has a tendency to benefit horses that are sitting just off the speed, and provides a fair shot for some of the heavy closers to operate down the frontrunners from the stretch.
The most probable case scenario with this wager to cash is for faster fractions upfront and also a bunched-up finish at the wire. In a field as competitive and closely matched as this one, there’s a lot of value in choosing the underdog option for the margin of duration victory.
Will any horse win two of three Triple Crown Races? No (-175), or Yes (+135)
The odds on this sure have changed as Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner in history. Since 2002 there were numerous near misses — six — with War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, I’ll Have Another, and California Chrome.
Triple Crown winners have a tendency to come in bunches with three winners in the 1930s, four in 1940s, and three in the 1970s. This tendency seems to be really be factored into the likelihood of this wager, and the recency bias of Justify capturing the bid this past year.
With the Kentucky Derby field as wide open as it’s been in years, and without a overwhelming favorite — cash on an easy proposition bet this weekend and wager the”No.”
The Last Place Saddlecloth Number Will be? Odd (-200), or (+160)
This amount appears to overvalue the fact that the longest shot on the board draws post 15. Even though there are just two 50-1 morning-line runners, the Japanese horse 15 Master Fencer will likely go off at higher odds than that at the call to the post.
Despite who plays or underperforms based on their likelihood, the probably last-place finisher is a runner that records a DNF or must pull up. This can often occur because of unforeseeable conditions and is something you cannot handicap for. Assuming that the race has been run smoothly, five of the 10 runners in 20-1 odds or higher will be breaking out of a gate with an even saddlecloth number. At +160, that seems like a great deal of worth to choose a 50/50 proposition bet.
Good luck this weekend, and enjoy the”most exciting two minutes in sports!”
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